(8 May 2024) New data repositories and alternative journals and workshops offer routes for sharing negative results — which could help to solve the reproducibility crisis and give machine learning a boost.
Over the past 30 years, the proportion of negative results being published has decreased further. A 2012 study showed that, from 1990 to 2007, there was a 22% increase in positive conclusions in papers; by 2007, 85% of papers published had positive results. “People fail to report [negative] results, because they know they won’t get published — and when people do attempt to publish them, they get rejected,” says Field. A 2022 survey of researchers in France in chemistry, physics, engineering and environmental sciences showed that, although 81% had produced relevant negative results and 75% were willing to publish them, only 12.5% had the opportunity to do so.
One factor that is leading some researchers to revisit the problem is the growing use of predictive modelling using machine-learning tools in many fields. These tools are trained on large data sets that are often derived from published work, and scientists have found that the absence of negative data in the literature is hampering the process. Without a concerted effort to publish more negative results that artificial intelligence (AI) can be trained on, the promise of the technology could be stifled.
Nature has more here.
